Source: audioboom.com
09-11-2017
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BREXIT Watch: remembering 9/11. Bull on Turkey and gold. Bear on Bitcoin. @SimonConstable

Investments in Turkey are what finance experts call a "high-beta play" on emerging markets, said Francesc Balcells, an emerging markets portfolio manager at PIMCO in London. That means when emerging markets perform well as a whole Turkish investments should do even better.
"Turkey is always a massive beneficiary of that," said Balcells.
There are also some variables particular to Turkey that give investors an incentive to inject cash into the country.
The inflation-adjusted cost of borrowing money is close to zero and sometimes even lower than that. For instance, the overnight lending rate was 9.25 percent on Thursday, against inflation of near 11 percent. Such so-called low "real" interest rates allow investors to borrow greater sums of money and consumers to have more spending cash.
To spur the economy even more, the government introduced an ad hoc measure to stimulate lending further. Specifically, the government launched a programme to guarantee a portion of loans made to businesses. The initial promise was to back $73bn. This move is widely believed to be part of Erdogan"s plan to boost the economy ahead of a 2019 election in hopes of keeping his position.
The result is a massive ramp-up in credit growth that is the "largest expansion of credit stock for a decade," said a recent report from TS Lombard, a company that deals in economic forecasting. The credit growth has also shown up in money-supply statistics. M3, a broad measure of nationwide money circulation, increased to about $457bn in July from $425bn in December last year, according to data from Trading Economics.
It gets better. The government has also become uncharacteristically spendthrift.
"On the fiscal side, traditionally Turkey has been pretty conservative," said Balcells. "But we have recently seen a slippage in fiscal discipline."


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